Surging US Ethanol Exports

The U.S. ethanol exports surged in 2024, reaching a record 1.91 billion gallons, surpassing the previous high set in 2018. This increase was driven by strong international demand for U.S. product, fuelled by lower domestic prices and reduced competition from a declining Brazilian supply. The record volume represented a 36% increase from 2023 and covered exports to 80 countries, including Canada, the U.K., the EU, and Colombia.

U.S. ethanol export from 2014 to 2024

The 2014 export volume of United States Ethanol was 836 million gallons, up about 35% from 2013, while in 2015, the US exported approximately 845 million gallons of ethanol in 2015. This volume is nearly identical to the previous year's total and the second highest on record at the time. This figure accounts for non-beverage ethanol, the vast majority of which was used for fuel. In 2016, significant increase of approximately 25% compared to the previous year, representing 1,08 billion gallons of Ethanol. The largest export volumes went to Brazil, Canada, and China, though ethanol was shipped to 34 countries in total.

In 2017, the total export volume has reached around 1.40 billion gallons of ethanol, which was a record annual total at the time. This figure represented a 17% increase from the previous year and was a significant contributor to the U.S. remaining a net exporter of ethanol for the eighth consecutive year. This growth was driven by the increased corn production and ethanol production capacity in the U.S. outpaced domestic consumption, creating a surplus for export. Brazil and Canada remained the top two markets for U.S. ethanol exports, with Brazil receiving about one-third of the total shipments. But, at the early 2017, with the election of Donald Trump, the U.S. ethanol exports to China declined significantly due to a 30% tariff imposed to China. This has lead to a decraase of the export volume from 25% to 17& in 2017.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and Renewable Fuels Association, the total export volume has reached a record 1.70 billion gallons of ethanol in 2018, representing 24% increase from 2017 and the highest annual volume on record at the time. 

The American-made ethanol was exported to more than 80 countries across six continents. The export share of undenatured ethanol for fuel accounted for 51% of the total, while the denatured ethanol for fuel made up 43% and the denatured and undenatured ethanol for non-fuel industrial uses accounted for the remaining 6%. The U.S. exports more fuel ethanol than non-fuel ethanol. The U.S. major fuel ethanol production and export is stimulated by the EU's European Green Deal is its growth strategy to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050, a comprehensive plan including legislation like the Climate Law and the Fit for 55 Package to cut emissions and promote a fair, prosperous, and competitive economy. It aligns with the Paris Agreement and serves as a new model for sustainable economic development, setting global standards in areas like clean energy, transport, and sustainable finance. International aspects include efforts to design and implement green reforms in member states and offer support through the Just Transition Mechanism to regions most affected by the shift from fossil fuels.

During the COVID19 of 2019, the U.S. exported an average of approximately 96,000 barrels per day (BPD) of fuel ethanol, representing approximately 1.5 billion gallons for the year. This volume was a 14% decrease from the previous year, marking the first annual drop in exports since 2015, though it remained the second-highest level on record. Besides this decrease, Brazil and Canada still accounted for the major destination of U.S. Fuel Ethanol, nearly half of all U.S. ethanol exports. The factors causing the U.S. Ethanol exports decline, include the decreased demand from Brazil due to tariffs and increasing domestic production, and reduced domestic and export demand in general.

In 2021, U.S. ethanol exports totalled 1.23 billion gallons valued at US$2.87 billion. Compared to 2020, the value of exports rose 21% due to higher export unit value, recovery in Canadian gasoline demand, and strong sales of non-fuel grade product to South Korea. The 2021 volume exported was 5.2% lower than 2020. This decrease of approximately 93 million gallons is due to reduced price competitiveness and continued weakness in gasoline demand, and 25% below the record 1.7 billion gallons shipped in 2018. Exports of fuel ethanol to China jumped in the first quarter of 2021 as a result of previous quarter contracts negotiated at bargain prices. Sales of fuel ethanol to the United Kingdom (UK) rose late in the year with the country's move to the E10 blend. Ethanol exports to Brazil saw the largest absolute decline in 2021. This was due to Brazil's COVID-19 impacted fuel market and the trade-limiting impact of a 20% tariff that Brazil began applying on all ethanol imports – almost all of which is supplied by the U.S. in December 2020, given higher U.S. prices and a weaker Brazilian real (BRL). Exports to Brazil were already in freefall since 2020. They declined further by both volume and value to a mere 80 million gallons valued at US$154 million, 80% below the volume shipped in 2018. Normally, the first or second-largest market for U.S. ethanol, Brazil fell to sixth place in 2021. Export volumes were also weaker to price-sensitive fuel markets in 2021, most notably Colombia and the Philippines.

Source: MDA CAPITAL INVEST, a.s.

Main factors driving the surge of US ethanol exports

• Low Prices. U.S. ethanol prices fell significantly in 2024, making the product more competitive on the global market.
• Reduced Brazilian Supply. A decline in Brazilian ethanol exports, due to increased domestic demand and higher fuel consumption, created an opening for U.S. ethanol to fill the void.
• Strong International Demand. A consistent global appetite for biofuels supported the growth in U.S. exports.
• Record Output. U.S. ethanol production also reached record-high levels in 2024, which, combined with record exports, helped keep domestic supplies in check.

Major export countries of US ethanol

Canada remained the largest destination for U.S. ethanol exports in 2024. The U.K., the EU, and Colombia were significant markets for undenatured fuel ethanol. Other key markets for U.S. ethanol exports in the first half of 2025 included Brazil, Nigeria, and other countries.

Top Markets for US Ethanol Export by share in 2024

Source: RFA.

Market impact

The record exports resulted in a significant trade surplus for the U.S. ethanol industry. The surge in exports has also been linked to increasing global corn prices, as ethanol production consumes a large amount of U.S. corn.

The context

The European ethanol industry faces competition from a surge in US ethanol exports, which have increased significantly since 2021, despite existing tariffs, which may decrease the importe of ethanol from the United States and create a strategic ethanol import market for the European Union. Besides, the Cassavatech ethanol will ease the diversification of the  EU ethanol import, while resucing the impact of the U.S. Tariffs on its economy.

The Cassavatech ethanol Project will also boost the export of EU ethanol and energy technologies, creating other export market markets for other industry, mainly in the agricultural, energy, automotive, engineering and manufacturing industries. Nigeria will also cease on the opportunity to revolutionise its Agricultural industry to full mechanisation and boost its exporta and decrease the import of Ethanol from the United States.

So, Policy shifts in 2025 may impact growth, but strong production and demand could sustain momentum.